Not long after Yordan Álvarez sent a José Alvarado sinker 450 feet to center in Houston, Phillies fans were left facing a grim reality: The euphoric joyride of the past month was over, and 145 days separated them from Opening Day. Mercifully, this is being written 138 days later, with just one week until the Phillies open the 2023 season 250 miles north of where the 2022 campaign ended.

Only the boldest of forecasters had the Phillies making their run all the way to the World Series at this time last year. Only crazy people believed they could do it after a 22-29 start saw the Phillies ditch their manager, Joe Girardi, in favor of eventual-savior-of-Philadelphia Rob Thomson.The Phillies illuminated what countless gamblers have come to know: It’s really difficult to predict baseball. It’s more susceptible to randomness than any other major American sport, and its playoffs routinely reward the sport’s hottest teams, not necessarily its best.

That being said, I compiled eight predictions that I believe you’ll see in MLB’s 2023 season, completely understanding that an injury here, a rookie breakout there, or my complete ineptitude at soothsaying could make me look foolish six months from now. Without further adieu, here are four predictions for the Phillies and four predictions for the rest of the league. 

Phillies Predictions

1.     Bryce Harper hits 30 home runs.

It goes without saying that any other year, this would feel like more of a certainty than a prediction. The complicating factor is, of course, Harper’s rehab from offseason Tommy John surgery. Early guesses for a return date stated he’d be the Phillies’ DH some time around the All-Star Game and back in right field towards the regular season’s end.

All the messaging from Clearwater, however, has told a different story. Franchise legend Larry Bowa told fans to “erase” that initial return date, and President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski elected not to put Harper on the 60-day IL, leaving open the possibility that he comes back some time in May.The Phillies have little to gain and lots to lose by rushing back Harper. If there was any doubt that Harper won’t need the first three and a half months of the season to rehab, we wouldn’t have heard these comments.

It could take some time for Harper to reach his standard level of play after he comes back, but I’ll believe the prolonged slump when I see it. Sure, there were some brief struggles post-IL stint last year, but this is the two-time NL MVP who just OPS’d 1.160 in the playoffs, with a torn UCL. Give me over 29.5 homers.

2.     Griff McGarry plays a larger role than Andrew Painter.

Painter is the envy of non-Phillies front offices around the league, as he should be. 19 year-olds with triple-digit fastballs and a major league ready secondary offering are exceedingly rare.

2023 won’t be the coming out party some fans may have expected, though.

Expectations were already slowed a few weeks ago when Painter was diagnosed with a sprained UCL and subsequently shut down. While Painter is still almost certainly going to make his debut at some point this year, the ace he’ll be down the road probably won’t be what you see yet. A slow buildup and an innings limit will keep him from the NL Rookie of the Year Race. It also seems unlikely that the Phillies will move Painter to the bullpen for the year, where shorter innings might maximize his abilities in the short term, but stunt his development as a starter.

The same can’t be said for McGarry, the organization’s third-ranked pitching prospect behind Painter and Mick Abel. McGarry was fast-tracked to Lehigh Valley last year and seemed to be a September call-up candidate. He offers a triple-digit fastball of his own and struck out almost 14 batters per nine innings in 2022. Control is a major concern (5.4 BB/9 in the minors in 2022) that he’ll have to work on with Pitching Coach Caleb Cotham, but wildness is tolerated more with relievers than staters. With the bullpen looking like his long-term home and his twenty-fourth birthday coming in June, it feels far more likely that the Phillies will be aggressive with McGarry’s usage. I see him as a call-up some time over the summer, where he’ll get a chance to stick.

3.     The Phillies finally pass the Braves, but not the Mets

.I’ll spend all season hoping the second half of this prediction proves to be wrong, but for now, it’s hard not to see the Mets as the best team over a 162-game schedule. The top of their rotation is too much for most teams in the league. Barring injury, you have to think that Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer will win plenty of series on their own. Throw in Kodai Senga, Carlos Carrasco, Jose Quintana, Tylor Megill, and David Peterson as middle- and back-of-the rotation options, and I think the Mets have enough options to piece together an elite rotation, even without the departed Jacob deGrom. An above average lineup, if not a remarkable one, will be more than enough for them.

On the bright side, I don’t think the Phillies will finish in third place in the NL East again. The Phillies soundly put the Braves to bed last year, beating them 3-1 in the NLDS and ending Atlanta’s title defense. Atlanta’s core of extended players will land them in the playoffs, but it’s not enough to keep pace with the Phillies’ firepower. There’s not a bad pitcher on that team, but the rotation doesn’t quite stack up with the Mets’ top arms. The Phillies will end the season stuck between their two biggest rivals.

4.     Alec Bohm breaks out.

The heartbreaking news of Rhys Hoskins’ ACL was confirmed during this post’s writing. The longest-tenured member of the Phillies’ lineup may never play another game for them. That’s devastating.

Now more than ever, the Phillies are counting on Bohm to live up to his top-prospect hype. I think he’ll do it.

After struggling to elevate the ball in 2021 and early 2022, Hitting Coach Kevin Long worked his magic with the lanky third baseman. Bohm finished the year with an expected batting average in the ninety-seventh percentile of qualified hitters, and he had an OPS 31 points higher after the all-star break than before. Give Long another year to fix what was a broken approach at the plate, and Bohm seems poised to have a career year. The walk rate needs to climb (4.9%), as does the barrel rate (forty-first percentile), but the strength is there. It looks like Bohm could see plenty of time at first base, a far less demanding position defensively, which can only help his results at the plate. 

MLB Predictions

1.     Only two division winners repeat.

I’ve got the Yankees and Astros repeating. Those two teams feel like safe bets to stay among the league’s best in 2023. The Yankees retained Aaron Judge and Anthony Rizzo while adding Carlos Rodón to their rotation. The Astros somehow don’t seem to be missing a beat after losing Verlander, bolstering their lineup with José Abreu and signaling their pitching dominance isn’t going anywhere by extending World Series no-hitter starter Christian Javier.

The rest of MLB’s divisions are up for grabs. I already talked about the NL East. Here are the rest of my picks:

·       Brewers over Cardinals in the NL Central

·       Padres over Dodgers in the NL West

·       White Sox over Guardians in the AL Central 

2.     The Rangers look directionless at the end of the year.

With all the disgraceful, frugal MLB owners, it feels wrong to attack one of the off-season’s spenders, especially since they spent last year, too. But I just don’t think the Rangers have what it takes to compete with the Astros or the Mariners, and I think the Angels are poised to make a wild card run (keep reading).

The Andrew Heaney signing was not one I was a fan of. He had an anomalous age-31 season with the Dodgers, where he posted a strikeout rate (35.5%) far higher than his next best season (28.9% in 2019), and his walk rate (6.1%) approached his career best (6.0%). It’s no secret that the Dodgers excel at getting the best out of their pitchers. I don’t trust that success to last.

Martín Pérez had a similarly outlier-ish 2022. Counting on that to repeat feels unwise, too.

And then there’s deGrom’s health.

While acknowledging there’s upside, I think too many things have to go right for this rotation to carry a top-heavy lineup into October. At season’s end, I think Texas could be a fourth-place team with lots of big contracts.

3.     Shohei and Trout make the Angels fun.

Too much talent exists on the Angels’ roster for them not to improve upon their 89-loss 2022. The writing is on the wall that Arte Moreno isn’t digging into his checkbook to keep Shohei Ohtani in Anaheim post-2023. There will be a last hurrah vibe around the Angels this year that propels them into playoff contention.

While Trout and Ohtani will certainly be the Angels’ biggest hopes, the oft-mocked rotation has quietly turned into a solid unit over the past year. Tyler Anderson is subject to the same questions I mentioned with Heaney, but Patrick Sandoval and José Suarez make the Angels rotation respectable behind Ohtani.

The lineup will include former Phillies prospect Logan O’Hoppe, Gio Urshela, and a healthy Anthony Rendon. That supporting cast can help the sport’s two best players keep this team interesting into September. Don’t be surprised if they’re the AL’s six seed. 

4.     The Pirates finish outside of the league’s worst teams.

Saving the boldest for last. The lineup has legitimate upside. McCutchen remains a solid bat against lefties, Jack Suwinski looks like a promising young piece, and the young core of Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, and Ke’Bryan Hayes is more than respectable. The pieces to build around are there.

The rotation remains a huge question mark, though. Mitch Keller needs to build upon his improvement last season. JT Brubaker desperately needs to miss more bats, but the raw stuff is there. Initially, I wanted to predict a win total, but the pitching volatility made that tough for the Pirates. I’ll hold off on anointing them as preseason dark horses, but I see them as tangibly better than the Reds, Nationals, Athletics, Royals, Rockies, and Tigers.  

Owen Sandor