The biggest headlines in Phillies world the past 48 hours haven’t been great. Rhys Hoskins’ left ACL and Aaron Nola’s lack of a long-term deal have cast a bit of a shadow over the good vibes going into the season. Nola’s situation is a stressful one for the fanbase, but it won’t hit its peak until after the season, when negotiations pick up again. Hoskins’ injury, meanwhile, requires an immediate solution.

For the time being, Darick Hall is getting the “majority” of playing time at first base. If all goes right, Hall will seize the position and help the Phillies’ playoff push. His struggles against lefties (.556 OPS against left-handers last year) could even be minimized with Edmundo Sosa’s right-handed bat.

That’s far from a guarantee, though. Hall’s blistering hot start to his career helped the Phillies overcome Bryce Harper’s absence in 2022, but that sample size (142 plate appearances) is tiny compared to what’s being asked of his this year.

If the Phillies get to July and first base is a weakness on the team, they’ll no doubt consider an upgrade. Just what might a trade look like? Like all other acquisitions, that’ll come down to two components: What will the Phillies be willing to give up? Who is available?

It’s a safe bet, maybe even a certainty, that the Phillies’ top prospects wouldn’t be a part of any first base trade in 2023. With Harper, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, and Alec Bohm all looking like they may end up at first base in years to come, any pickup is bound to be a player on a soon-to-be expired contract, rather than a piece of the puzzle for years to come.

Down on the Phillies list of top prospects we go, then.

Rafael Marchan feels like someone who is expendable within the organization. J.T. Realmuto will block Marchan until he is at least at least 27 years-old. An elite defensive prospect behind the plate, the 24 year-old Marchan certainly has value in a trade. Baseball America calls him “one of the best defensive catchers in the minors.”

Marchan’s bat has never been a strength, though. Bizarrely, his first career professional home run came in MLB, when the COVID-affected 2020 season gave him an opportunity to cameo on the big-league team. Across all professional levels of baseball, Marchan has identical OBP and SLG numbers, at .336. Power is a major concern. Without improvement, he won’t start consistently. Backup Garrett Stubbs won’t hit free agency until the same year Realmuto does. Marchan’s best value to the organization may be as a trade chip.

Hans Crouse is another name that could be floated come the trade deadline. Acquired in the same deal that brought Kyle Gibson to Philadelphia, the right-hander debuted with the team at the end of the 2021 season but hasn’t appeared in the majors since then. Tendinitis in his throwing arm plagued his 2022 season, limiting him to just 12.1 innings.

If Crouse bounces back post-injury, he becomes an intriguing piece. He features a sinker in the mid-90s with an effective slider to go along with it. His last full season included 10.9 K/9 and a WHIP barely over 1.00.

With a bounceback year, Crouse could help any team for years to come, including the Phillies. Lots of questions exist, though, and the Phillies have plenty of minor league pitching depth right now, both for the rotation and the bullpen. Parting with young pitchers with any upside isn’t an easy thing to do, but if the 2023 season needs a kickstart in July, Crouse could entice a struggling team.

Marchan and Crouse are two of a handful of young players the Phillies may part with, but they help to establish the tier of prospect that could me moved. So what, exactly, could that type of minor leaguer net on the trade market? Let’s back up, for a second, one more time.

What teams are going to be offering major-league quality first base talent on shorter term deals? The bad ones who don’t need okay-to-good-performing, veteran players. Fangraphs projects these teams to finish with 95 losses or more:

The best veteran first basemen on these teams are Ji Man Choi (Pirates), Carlos Santana (Pirates), Jesús Aguilar (Athletics), Joey Votto (Reds), and C..J. Cron (Rockies). The odds of the Reds trading a franchise icon to the Phillies as a rental feels unlikely, so I’ll leave that one alone.

Hoskins was the Phillies’ second best right-handed bat after Trea Turner. Harper, Schwarber, Bryson Stott, and Brandon Marsh give the team plenty of left-handed regulars. A right-handed bat benefits the team more. That eliminates Choi and leaves Santana, Aguilar, and Cron.

Santana’s 2018 TV tirade during his one-year tenure with the Phillies doesn’t necessarily disqualify him from coming back, especially since there’s been a ton of turnover on the roster and the front office, but you have to wonder if that could complicate a return.

The bigger concern is the way Santana is aging. He finished with a perfectly league average 100 OPS+ in 2022, but that was his best year since his all-star 2019 campaign. That means Santana, who turns 37 in two weeks, hasn’t been better than an average hitter in four years. His is very different now than during his time in Philly. Barring an out-of-nowhere resurgence, I doubt he’s the answer.

Aguilar is a little more interesting. He had a tough 2022, between Miami and Baltimore (.661 OPS and .379 SLG), but he’s not as distantly removed from productivity as Santana. In 726 plate appearances from 2020-2021, Aguilar was thirteen percent better than the average hitter, according to OPS+. He hit 30 home runs, drove in 127 runs, and kept his strikeout rate below 20 percent. How he performs in Oakland will tip the scale one way or the other on his trade value. It’s no secret that he was brought in to entice contending teams at the deadline.

That leaves Cron, statistically the best hitter of the bunch. An all-star last year, Cron was even better in 2021, hitting 28 home runs, driving in 92, and slashing .281/.375/.530. Unfortunately for him, the Coors Effect is very noticeable in his splits. Last year, his home OPS was a fantastic .955. On the road, it was .619. 2021 wasn’t much different; 1.073 OPS at home and .734 on the road. That’s a huge red flag. I’d steer clear of Cron.

That doesn’t leave a ton of promising options. Certainly, other teams will underperform and find themselves as sellers. Maybe the Angels struggle and Jared Walsh becomes available (although he’s a lefty), or maybe the Phillies decide to give up a slightly better prospect to get Christian Walker.

What this exercise demonstrated for me, though, is that the best out-of-the-organization solution might come via free agency, not a trade. Hitting Coach Kevin Long getting a chance to fix Keston Hiura could be a low-risk, high-reward move. Luke Voit could provide some pop, even if it’s not every day.

My biggest takeaway is that I hope the Phillies don’t overreact. First base doesn’t look like it’s going to be strength of this team. That’s not ideal, but it’s okay. Options seem relatively limited at this point. I’d hate to see a panic move lead to an Asdrúbal Cabrera type of trade, where it feels like the front office did something just for the sake of doing something, although I trust Dave Dombrowski not to do that.

Hopefully Hall steps up, and this isn’t a conversation that the team needs to have, but if July comes and the team needs improvement, maybe their best bet is to find a bat somewhere else and move a weak fielder to first. Options seem limited. Here’s to hoping that doesn’t hurt the Phils.